Short version: Canada lost jobs for a second month in a row. That makes it harder for the Bank of Canada to raise its rate on October 28. For a car shopper, the practical read is that borrowing costs are more likely to stay put than to jump this month.
Statistics Canada reported this morning that employment fell by 68,000 in September, or 0.3%. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 points to 6.5%. Full-time work fell by 35,000 and part-time by 33,000. August was also down, by 42,000. Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey
Why a car shopper should care
The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25%. It has held there since September 2. On September 28 I wrote that the October 28 decision had moved to roughly a coin flip between a hold and a hike.
What it means: a central bank raises rates when the economy is running hot. Two months of job losses, with most of September's drop among workers aged 15 to 24, is not that. Wage growth of 2.3% is not that either. One more number lands before the decision, the September inflation report. Unless it surprises on the high side, the case for a hike is thin.
What it does and does not change
It does not change a Honda program rate. Honda Canada sets promotional finance and lease rates by program. A rate posted today is the rate today, whatever happens on October 28.
It matters more if part of your plan is a bank loan or a line of credit, or if you were rushing a purchase because you expected borrowing to cost more next month. That rush has less behind it this week than it did two weeks ago.
There is a second read, and it is less comfortable. Ontario lost 20,000 jobs in the month and its unemployment rate is 7.0%. Fewer people working is fewer people shopping. DesRosiers already expects the fourth quarter to run behind last year's. A softer quarter is when programs tend to get better, not worse.
My predictions
My prediction: The Bank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25% on October 28, 2026, because two straight months of job losses take away the argument for a hike. I am wrong if the rate moves in either direction that day.
My prediction: The policy rate will still be 2.25% or lower on April 9, 2027. A labour market losing jobs does not get a higher rate over the winter. I am wrong if the Bank's rate is above 2.25% on that date.
If you're buying right now: do not buy early out of fear of October 28, and do not wait for it either. Decide on the car and the program in front of you. This month's posted rates and lease support are on the Honda deals page, and those are the numbers that set what you actually pay.
Quick answers
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates on October 28, 2026?
Nobody knows until the announcement. The policy rate is 2.25%. Statistics Canada reported 68,000 fewer jobs in September and a second straight monthly decline, which makes a hike harder to justify. My call is a hold.
Does the Bank of Canada rate change my Honda finance rate?
Not directly. Honda Canada sets its promotional finance and lease rates by program, usually month to month. The policy rate matters more for bank loans, lines of credit and variable-rate borrowing.
Should I wait for the rate decision before buying a car?
Not for the decision itself. A posted Honda program rate is known today and does not move on October 28. What can change is the next month's program, so compare the current offer against waiting for the car you actually want.
Want the rate math on a specific Honda?
Send me the model and how long you plan to keep it. I will show you this month's program rate next to a bank loan, on one sheet.
Henry Chen · Sales Consultant, Maple Honda
89 Auto Vaughan Dr, Maple, ON L6A 4A1
647-523-6878 · henry@maplehonda.com