The news: Before the Bank of Canada’s September 2 decision, markets put the odds of a hold at about 94%. The Bank did hold, at 2.25%, for a seventh straight time. By the third week of September, pricing for the next decision on October 28 had moved to roughly a coin flip, at one point narrowly favouring a 25-basis-point hike, according to LSEG data cited by The Canadian Press. The economists quoted in that reporting pointed mainly to oil prices. Statistics Canada’s August reading had all-items inflation at 3.0% year over year, and 2.4% excluding gasoline, up from 2.2% in July. Economists at RBC, Desjardins and Capital Economics still expected a hold. MoneySense / The Canadian Press · Statistics Canada
What it means: A hike would lift the big banks’ prime rate by the same quarter point, and anything priced off prime moves with it: most bank car loans, home-equity lines and personal lines of credit. That is the money some buyers use to pay cash for a car. A Honda Financial Services contract works differently. The rate is written into the contract when you sign, and the advertised rates for new deals come from Honda Canada’s monthly sales program. September’s program left finance rates unchanged from August on every trim, through a stretch when the Bank was holding. October’s program starts on October 1, four weeks before the announcement, so the first program written with the decision in hand is November’s. On the floor, the buyer a surprise hurts is the one who planned to pay with a line of credit and hasn’t checked its rate lately.
My prediction: The lowest finance rate Honda Canada advertises on the 2027 HR-V in its November 2026 program will be no higher than the lowest one it advertises in October 2026, whether or not the Bank raises on October 28, because Honda’s promotional rates are monthly marketing decisions aimed at moving cars before year-end, not a pass-through of the policy rate. I’ll be wrong if November’s lowest advertised HR-V finance rate is above October’s.
If you’re buying right now: If you’re paying with a bank loan or a line of credit, get the approval signed before October 28 and the coin flip stops mattering to you. If you’re financing through Honda, compare the October program against September’s on the model you want when it posts on October 1. That is the number that decides your payment. This month’s Honda deals explains what the program terms mean, and the best time to buy a Honda in Vaughan covers how the monthly cycle works.
Quick answers
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates on October 28, 2026?
Nobody knows yet. The policy rate has been held at 2.25% since the September 2 decision. Market pricing moved from about 94% odds of a hold before September 2 to roughly a coin flip on an October 28 hike, at one point narrowly favouring a hike, according to LSEG data cited by The Canadian Press. Economists at RBC, Desjardins and Capital Economics still expected a hold.
Does a Bank of Canada rate hike change my Honda Financial Services rate?
Not on a contract you have already signed: a Honda Financial Services finance or lease contract carries the rate written into it. For new deals, Honda Canada sets its advertised finance and lease rates in a monthly sales program. The Bank's decision lands on October 28, in the middle of the October program, so the first program written after it is November's.
Should I lock in a car loan before October 28?
If your loan is priced off prime, such as a bank car loan or a line of credit, getting approved and signed before October 28 removes the risk of a 25-basis-point increase. If you are financing through Honda Financial Services, the number to watch is the October program that starts October 1, not the Bank's announcement.
Want your number before October 28?
Tell me the model and how you plan to pay, and I’ll put the current Honda program next to a bank loan, side by side.
Henry Chen
Sales and Leasing Executive, Maple Honda
89 Auto Vaughan Dr, Maple, ON L6A 4A1
647-523-6878 · henry@maplehonda.com
Sources: The Canadian Press via MoneySense, September 21, 2026, citing LSEG Data & Analytics; Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 14, 2026). Honda program details are from the dealer-side September 2026 sales program. Predictions are my personal read, not Honda Canada policy.
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